A look at the East

A lot of things have changed in a month in the East. The Sabres lost their co-captains. The Devils lost Rafalski and Gomez. The Rangers grabbed Gomez and Drury. The Flyers decided to replace every player on their roster.

Clearly all these moves will make the Eastern Conference much different than it was at the beginning of last year, but what are the expectations for each team…
I will take a look at each team, their losses and gains, and see exactly where I expect them to fall next year. I’ll give a high-end prediction, and low-end prediction and then an expected finish for each team. I have decided not to factor in major injuries unless a player has a history of them in order to eliminate the “out of playoffs if team misses 400 man games” low sides.

Buffalo Sabres – Lost their two co-captains and the points that go with them. This will impact them a lot as now focus falls on players like Vanek (his new contract doesn’t help either) and Afinogenov and they will have to learn to play with additional pressure from opposing teams. On the bright side Connolly should be around the entire season and they have a ton of young depth just waiting for a chance to break out. Don’t forget Miller too, he doesn’t get a lot of talk but he’s probably the single most important player on the team and keeps them in a lot of games
High: Repeat presidents trophy if all the young players click and Connolly has a great comeback year
Low: 7-8 seed if teams can adjust to their speed or Connolly can’t play the entire season due to concussion issues.
Prediction: 5 seed

New Jersey Devils – Lost two big names to free agency and replaced them with Zubrus. Not a slouch, but not an upgrade either. Still have possibly the greatest goalie ever between the pipes so you can never count them out. Their tight defensive system will also help diminish the impact of losing two stars.
High: Win the East if Brodeur has another year like last.
Low: 7-8 seed if teams can finally break the now weaker defense
Prediction: 4 seed

Atlanta Thrashers – Would have been a 5 seed last year if not for the divisional win. Didn’t really do much in the free agency market either good or bad. With Kovalchuk, Hossa and Holik they can still do some damage though and Lehtonen is very young and could have a career year. On the other hand he could slip and this team will struggle
High: Divisional win, 3rd seed if they play about as well as last year and goaltending holds up
Low: Out of the playoffs if the goaltending isn’t there. Remember it’s only a 6 point drop from 3rd to 9th
Prediction: 8th seed

Ottawa Senators – Another team that didn’t make a lot of headlines in the last few weeks however they also lost very little. Assuming they’re able to retain Emery (would be surprised if they didn’t) this is essentially the same team that just played in the Cup finals. One of the pre-season east favorites.
High: 110 point conference win season if everything stays
Low: 5-7 seed if a wheel shakes loose during the season
Prediction: 2nd seed (100-105 points)

Pittsburgh Penguins – By far the most talented young team in the league now captained by the most talented players. They’ll have an extra year of experience on all the youngsters, especially Fleury, and will have the leadership of Roberts and Rechi all year long. Possibly the pick from the east.
High: 115 point season to win the conference and presidents trophy if all goes to plan. On a side note, Crosby breaks 150 points.
Low: 4-6 seed for one of the few teams where a low is hard to see
Prediction: 1st seed (105-110 points)

New York Rangers – One of the biggest question marks of the east. Everything could mesh the way they hope and they can turn into an odd on favorite for the cup. On the other hand bringing in two big contracts can alter the dressing room a lot.
High: Win the division with a 2-3 seed if it all meshes
Low: 8-10 seed, they weren’t that far in this year and extra egos could cause issues
Prediction: 6 seed

Tampa Bay Lightning – I really like the addition of Ouellet and their big 3 make this team tough to beat on any night. Boyle is a strong presence in the back and they have the cap space to bring in some help down the stretch. They aren’t that far removed from winning the cup remember.
High: Divisional win and a 2nd seed
Low: 11-12 seed. Goaltending is a question on this team, if it falls so do they
Prediction: Divisional win and 3rd seed

New York Islanders – Wow, where do you start. Do they even have anyone besides DiPietro left? Easily took the biggest losses July 1st and although Guerin and Comrie are good editions this team is a lot worse than 12 months ago. I guess on the plus side they have a lot of cap space.
High: Tavares is able to be drafted a year early
Low: He isn’t
Prediction: 15 seed

Toronto Maple Leafs – I can hear the flaming starting already. On a more serious note, this team fixed their two major weakness from last season, Goaltending via Toskala and a winger for Mats Sundin via Blake. They finished 1 point out of the playoffs last year while losing a ton of games due to injuries. The Toskala/Raycroft duo looks to be promising assuming the latter isn’t moved in the next few months.
High: 4 seed
Low: 10 seed
Prediction: 7 seed

Montreal Canadien – Made some interesting moves that should improve the team despite losing Souray to free agency (ultimately to the Oilers). Huet is still capable of playing very well and they lost a good amount of games due to circumstance last year (injury, flu).
High: 5-7 seed
Low: 12 seed
Prediction: 9 seed

Carolina Hurricanes – No big moves either way here however this is a team that is only 1 year removed from winning it all after posting 112 points. Another one of the Easts big question marks which is reflected in the huge gap between high and low. Playing in one of the leagues weakest divisions could work to their advantage.
High: Divisional win in the 3rd seed
Low: 14 seed
Prediction: 12th seed.

Florida Panthers – Not really sure anyone notices these guys still play hockey. They did address their goaltending need with the addition of Vokoun however as a whole the team is still full of holes.
High: 9-10 seed
Low: 14 seed
Prediction: 13 seed

Boston Bruins – They have a goalie now but it remains to be seen if they can fix the other problems with the team. They showed flashes last year and remained in the hunt for a bit but eventually fell off. I expect something similar this year.
High: 8th seed, Goaltending could fix it all, who knows
Low: 14th seed
Prediction: 14th seed

Washington – Nylander, Kozlov and Poti will bring a lot to the table. Kolzig remains between the pipes which keeps them in a lot of games they shouldn’t be in. Still remains to be seen if they can get everything going well again.
High: 6-8 seed
Low: 14 seed
Prediction: 11 seed

Philadelphia Flyers – Wow. Talk about turning a team around in a hurry. They went from odds on favorites to win the entry draft to probably the leagues most improved team in the course of a month. They fixed goaltending, they got a couple solid d-men, they got scoring, now to see if it fits together which makes them the biggest question mark of the league to me. Still need to o
vercome being a slow team.
High: 4-6 seed It could all come right
Low: 14 seed So many new faces could make it hard to get the season going and could leave them as sellers at the end
Prediction: 10 Seed Yes they’re improved, but they were downright awful last year, I give it another year before everything is good.

For those who don’t remember all the individual predictions here are the compiled results. I have also included a little note to show how far up or down from last year I expect the team to go

1. Pittsburgh Penguins (+4)
2. Ottawa Senators (+2)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning (+4)
4. New Jersey Devils (-2)
5. Buffalo Sabres (-4)
6. New York Rangers (0)
7. Toronto Maple Leafs (+2)
8. Atlanta Thrashers (-5)
9. Montreal Canadien (+1)
10. Philadelphia Flyers (+5)
11. Washington Capitols (+3)
12. Carolina Hurricanes (-1)
13. Florida Panthers (-1)
14. Boston Bruins (-1)
15. Quebec Nordiques (hehe)
16. New York Islanders (-7)

Just to point out some last things.
- Although teams like Florida and Boston improved I don’t see much upswing in the standings for them due to the teams around them (Washington and Philly) also moving up.
- The only team I expect to be way out of the race is the Islanders. Above that and there’s a chance any team could make it.
- 7 of the 8 playoff teams return with the Isles making an exit and the Leafs coming in.

I would appreciate if people would keep the flames about a given team or this type of article out of here and offer only their thoughts on my analysis and predictions. It’s possible I missed something, feel free to point it out.