A new Lowe

Kevin Lowe is desparate. He thought he had Nylander, but lost him. He thought he had Vanek, but lost him. Now one has to wonder what he thinks about Penner.Penner is a young and talented forward, who scored 29 goals last season. He is surely a better player than Bertuzzi who just cashed in 4 million dollars from Burke a few weeks ago. If you just look at the player, and the contract, you think Burke has to match. 4 million dollars is a lot of money, but Penner could be worth that or more next season and in the next 5 seasons. But whether Burke matches or not is not as important as the implications of the offer sheet.

There are 2 scenario’s. The first one is that Lowe expected Burke to match. If you know a GM will match, why make the offer sheet? Well if Niedermayer comes back and Burke accepts, the Ducks cap hit will be about 3 million too high. So in this scenario, Lowe is merely trying to make life tougher on a team he has to play 4 times this year. Thats a very low blow if you ask me.

So it must be the second scenario. Where Lowe did not expect Burke to match. In this scenario, Lowe wants a goal scorer in Penner. He feels Burke is too cash strapped to accept, which is all fine in my mind. My only problem with this is the timing. Lowe didn’t offer Penner a contract a week ago, or a week from now; he chose to offer Penner a contract on the exact day that Burke left work to spend his weekend with the cup. What a nice day it must have been. Burke is with family and friends, showing off the cup, proud of his accomplishments; only to have the phone ring and say a friend of his gave one of his young players an offer sheet that he can’t afford to accept. In this scenario, Lowe waited until Burke was disposed, then sent in the offer.

Now that I’ve seen the alternative, scenario 1 doesn’t look so bad.

78 Responses to A new Lowe

  1. thegoalie1976 says:

    I support Lowe because I like the moves he has made, but I am not a fan of RFA offer sheets in general. I am glad he is using every measure to create a competitive team. I do prefer to sign UFA's, but so do 30 other teams, and you can't win them all.

    I support Lowe because he is playing by the rules to make the Oilers better, but I wish the RFA offer sheet rule was removed from the CBA.

  2. kamullia says:

    I agree that the league was on notice, even before the Vanek offer, that there has to be concern about the RFAs. However, it is not such a black and white argument because the problem with being pressed into signing an RFA is that it puts the GM at a disadvantage in the negotiations, no matter what.

    If he goes to arbitration, he risks alienating the player, plus arbitration from last year (and I suspect this year also) has proven that arbitrators are heavily leaning in favor of the players. If he deals with the player, and cannot use the leverage in not signing him while keeping the rights, the player once again has the upper hand monetarily. GMs need some leverage in negotiations, and the leverage with an RFA is not being able to play while the team keeps the rights.

  3. Halibut says:

    Explain to me exactly how it can in a cap system.  There is just no way and I've yet to see you offer one valid reason why it will.  The cap is the cap there's no way around it.  Whether you pay younger players or older players the result is the same you cant exceed the cap.

    Salaries go up through UFA offers as much as they do through RFA sheets.  Its just a question of who is getting the coin.

    I expect silence from you in return but I'd love to hear a valid reason why this is so horrible for the league.  Even Burke admitted that offer sheets are valid, the only question is whether this was overpriced we'll see in a few years.   It's nothing worse than the contract Hartnell received and no one sounded off on that deal as impending doom for the league.

  4. Halibut says:

    How many of those pan out?  It's a crap shoot.  Penner right now is certainly a better prospect than anyone you take outside of the top 5 spots in the best years in some years theres only a couple that end up truly living up to their billing.

  5. habsrock99 says:

    Seriously, you'd make a bad GM. You can't just TAKE a guy to arbitration, you have to wait until arbitration opens and you and your player(s) are given an arbitration hearing. That doesn't start until August 1.

  6. senators101 says:

    To everyone saying Lowe is making enemies, I say WHO CARES.  A GM isn't hired to make friends, he's hired to make his team better and Lowe did just that.

    You people are saying that teams won't trade with him anymore, I beg to differ.  If I'm Ottawa and I get a better deal from Edmonton than I do with any other team in the NHL, I'm taking it.  I'm not gonna sit there and analyze the GM's offer sheets handed out.  I will make my team better.  GM's would be retarded not to listen and consider trades from Lowe just because he tendered 2 offer sheets.

  7. kamullia says:

    As I said before, we have had this exchange before, therefore I am not going to wear out my keyboard again.

    If you want all the reasoning go back to HERE, find the thread, and read it.

  8. 19AVSFANFoLIFE19 says:

    my main problems
    burke already mentioned them
    he did this during the bc hall of fame induction ceremony you would think lowe had enough class in him to do it after wards but no he stole the spotlight when he shouldnt have
    and he let some other random agent tell burke about it he didnt do it himself.
    least have the guts to say i want this player and i signed him to an offer sheet.

  9. 19AVSFANFoLIFE19 says:

    #1 does this guy realize that the oil have no defensive dmen. the trade for pitkanen was stupid because now you have 2 of the most vulnerable dmen in the nhl. and vanek verge of super stardom sure why not if he has a line mate to feed him the puck thats why buffalo matched in my view because they think him and Roy will dominate like spezza and heatley.
    #2 hes right alternative measures do need to be taken its called build with your team through the draft. the oiler faithful will stand by you guys. they did after gretz and smyth left they will for a long time.

  10. 19AVSFANFoLIFE19 says:

    also a very idiotic move if you ask me
    i think Zach Parise is a tad bit better then Dustin Penner
    and if your willing to fork up almost 8 million a year for vanek
    you could throw roughly 5 at parise.

  11. Hoondog2 says:

    I believe Edmonton will have 1 of the top 10 draft picks next year. In years past the top 10 picks have been anything but crap shoots. The 2nd round is where the picks get a little more vague.

  12. thegoalie1976 says:

    You make an excellent point that most people here are forgetting.  I don't see Lowe suffering many repercussions from other GM's.

    I'm sure ANA and BUF will offer a oilers RFA a sheet, if they like the player, but Lowe can avoid this easily by signing his players earlier.

    If any team wants to trade (including ANA and BUF) they will take the deal that best suits their needs (edmonton included). If they spite lowe, and miss a good deal, then they are terrible GM's.

  13. thegoalie1976 says:

    That would be matched, which is why it never happened. NJ has lots of cap space left, ANA does not.

  14. thegoalie1976 says:

    You don't know anything about the Oilers.
    They have Staios, Greene, Smid are very reliable defensively
    Hemsky is one of the best passers in the league
    Lowe has built through the draft with Horcoff, Stoll, Hemsky, Greene, Pouliot, Schremp and so on. Not to mention the 3 first rounders this season.

    And by the way, enjoy overpaying Smyth, and watching him pay 60 games a year, and get injured (every season) during the stretch drive.

  15. flamingsenator says:

    for the people saying its business….calm yourselves down

    how often do u win a stanley cup?……not to dam often

    so wen burke FINALLY gets his turn with his prize….the WELL DESERVED prise mind all of u….he shares it with friends and family

    lowe couldnt wait a weekend?…..thats just sad that he made that offer at the time he did

    i for one LOVED the vanek offer….it was great……im also still pissed at the nylander drama…..so those of u that think i hate lowe…ur wrong

    business is business……but burke deserved his day….and it got ruined by lowe…..in wat business aspect has lowe befitted from, making an offer during burkes time…..NUTHING….all he did was piss him off and hes gonna be more inclined to stab him in the back as well

  16. flamingsenator says:

    "in wat business aspect has lowe befitted from, making an offer during burkes time."

    i think i wanna rephrase that line…..its kinda awkward

    "wat advantage did lowe get, by making an offer at this time…"

    i question my own intelligence sumtimes hahaha

  17. habsrock99 says:

    My mistake, Arbitraion started July 20th but my point still stands, you still have to wait until the hearing date arrives before you take a player to arbitration.

  18. habsrock99 says:

    For all of you who say that Lowe is a cunniving bastard, maybe not in those direct words but the point is still there, for choosing the weekend Burke had the Cup. Well, here's a scenario for all of you. What if Dustin Penner's Salary Arbitration hearing was schedueled for Monday July 30, seeing as Arbitration hearings had already started July 20. Maybe the timing part wasn't entirely Lowe's fault. Maybe he seen that Burke had the Cup and in his heart, really didn't want to do this to a friend but was forced to by timing issues. You also might be saying why he didn't do it before Burke left, that can be explained by the entire process Lowe and his crew went through to narrow down who they wanted more among the available RFA's. I don't like Lowe and never have butI'm willing to give the guy the benefit of the doubt here because, well, he's the most unlucky GM out there at the moment.

  19. kamullia says:

    Your scenario is not possible. Players that are scheduled for arbitration cannot be given an offer, other than the team who already own their rights. Therefore if Penner and the Ducks would have gone the arbitration route and had been scheduled, Lowe would not have been able to give an offer. But do not feel bad, I have yet to hear any theory to justify Lowe’s timing.

    However, even if your scenario was possible, Lowe should have called Burke. Period. And especially if he did feel the timing was rotten, as he surely had knowledge of it. Regardless if he would have called before tendering the offer, or right after, he should have called Burke personally. He had called Regier before tendering the offer to Vanek, and his relationship with Burke was much more cordial, therefore he should have given Burke the courtesy of the phone call, even if right after tendering the offer.

    A friend in the media tried to chase down why Lowe did not call Burke, but there is no one available who knows the answer since all the Oilers’ lips are sealed as to the incident. There are some vague rumors that Lowe did not appreciate Burke’s alleged private comments to others in the business about the Vanek offer, and therefore prompted the lack of courtesy…but the reporter was not able to quote or speak to anyone who could/would verify. It was all through third parties, therefore it cannot be classified as anything more than a rumor.

  20. Marc0427 says:

    Agreed, it's tough remembering the Oil of old with Wayne, Messier, Coffey etc etc etc etc….

    They've gone from the most dominating team in the league to…..well………nothing.

  21. Halibut says:

    I've read it and there is still no logical reasoning in that long winded stream of thought.

    Despite the PA not liking it if older salaries fall I dont see a way around it in this CBA.  Nobody wants to pay a Mogilny millions to play on the farm plus very few players in their mid to late 30's put up the numbers they did when they were in their mid 20's.  Also the age for UFA is going down which means that with or without RFA offer sheets more money will be spent on younger players.

    Teams that sign long term contracts for older players are going to handcuff themself in the future.  They wont be able to afford to make RFA offers because the player wont fit into their cap situation.  The teams losing players will get compensation and if the offer is overboard it will be more compensation then the player is worth.

    Despite your assertion that most gm's see RFA as you do I doubt any of the players or agents saw it that way or they would have dropped it from the CBA.  If it doesnt allow for the possibility of player movement then their is no value to it, your vision would result in all offer sheets being matched and have been of less value to the player then arbitration.

    I see all your arguements as vague generalizations based on how the league has run under the old CBA that dont actually look at the new deal and consider the ramifications of it.  You cant argue that if teams are over spending on young players then the older players will have to take less.  You cant argue that escrow payments protect the teams in the case of league wide over spending. 

  22. big_booty says:

    Know your facts before looking foolish. 

    Pursuant to the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement, Article 12, Section 4, Paragraph a), any club who wants to take a player to arbitration must notify the player by June 15, or 48 hours after the conclusion of the Stanley Cup finals.

  23. 19AVSFANFoLIFE19 says:

    ok thats fine
    leadership on D?
    besides staois
    not only that Smith was in my view easily a top 10 defensive dman and now hes gone.
    enjoy watching pitkanen and souray get undressed

    and if lowe built through the draft how come they havent had the same success as teams that did build through it. I.E the rangers? redwings?
    you havent build through the draft cause if you did you should have atleast one superstar forward. Where is he?

    and i will enjoy watching smyth, ofcourse he is overpaid so was every other player in free agency. closest to not being overpaid was scotty hannan. he would get 4 on the dot in my books.
    and i have no problem with smyths 60 games a year your just bitter cause hes not on the oilers anymore. you just enjoy watching him and sakic make roloson look stupid.

  24. 19AVSFANFoLIFE19 says:

    Parise also had alot more points on a defensive team then penner did.
    take the chance on him if you will on penner.

  25. kamullia says:

    I cannot help but read your reasoning find it comical that the same description of my views are applicable in the same exact fashion to yours. I see no logical reasoning to your posture either, because on one hand you find my reasonings as “…vague generalizations based on how the league has run under the old CBA…” and yet your entire basing of your argument above is based upon your not mentioned, but obvious, agreement upon my argument that salaries will navigate toward the younger crowd. Moreover hysterical, is the fact that “vague generalizations” are exactly all you are able to use in your argument. There is no history to base upon in the new CBA. There is no statistical marks that can be focused upon, because there have been not enough years to make a statistical model accurate. Your entire premise is an even bigger vague assumption, because whereas I try to use trends that I do see applicable to the new CBA from the history of the NHL, you cannot possibly provide any reliable numbers. This is not your fault that the CBA is so young, but your entire classification of my views and then the arguments you use make you a “preacher in his underwear” by all means.

    Bottom line, even your scenario is unreasonable. A league where older players in general, make less money than the much younger ones will simply not sustain as is. Maturer persons in general, and this is certainly true of players, focus more on family and pride than on future and instability for a penny like younger people tend to choose. That will translate into older players choosing to play elsewhere, rather than in the NHL once they feel monetarily the compensation is not worth it. As those contracts go down, you would certainly see the European players choose to play in Europe instead. Salaries in Russia and the Czech republic have seen quite a boost as of late, and the trend will probably propagate soon, or at least this is the clear intent of the IIHFs latest dealings. And the North American players not being able to find long-term deals, would simply find other ways of getting family stability and Europe or other solutions would become quite attractive to them. The NHL would eventually fracture, in my views, and perhaps a new league would rise. This is not something I would want, but I truly would not see a future to the NHL in that scenario.

    As a side note from an earlier post, regular readers of the site can testify that I was one of the people, along with others in the media (albeit not as many), that made the same arguments about the Hartnell deal. They were both insensible and will affect the league in general.

    In closing to put things mildly, I have a firm view on this, and perhaps we can both agree on my thought that we simply do not see eye-to-eye on this. In the end, time will tell how things turn out, and I frankly I would rather wait to see what happens on this, than unavailingly exchange ideas until the statistical models can be built. Until then, “Keep your views to yourself or other deranged lunatics, and stay in your fantasy world.” Hopefully you find it as funny as I do that I am sure you apply the same sentence in reverse.

    And on that note, I need to write to one of those NHL deranged lunatics from my side. I will make sure I convey your disapproval on our views. ;o)

  26. Halibut says:

    Not really.  Top 10 picks sound good on draft day but check a few years down the road and see how many have made the NHL and how many have made any impact in the league.  It's very few, most of the time 2 or 3 with a few more impact players coming from later in the first or even the 2nd or later rounds.

  27. Halibut says:

    Let's agree to disagree then. 

    I think we can agree that salaries for younger players are going up and that consequentially salaries for older players has to go down.  I dont think this is going to spell the end of the NHL you see it as a catastrophe.  In either case with younger UFAs coming RFA offer sheets may have sped up the process but it's one that was on it's way as soon as the CBA was agreed to.

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