Dallas a few moves away from contention

Dallas Stars are currently 12th in the Western Conference, with 74 points in 72 games. Everybody tagged them as Cup contenders in september. So what happened?

1rst, Dallas has been plagued with injuries this year. Brendan Morrow and Sergei Zubov, their 2 best players, were out for the year after only 15 games. Brad Richards has played only 60 games this year. Same for Toby Petersen, a versatile and dependable center. Joel Lundqvist has played only 40. Same for Jere Lehtinen, a Selke winner. Steve Ott has played only 60 too. A lot of times this year, half of their roster was filled with minor league players. It doesn’t help.

2nd, some key players underachieved. Starting by Marty Turco. .897% and 2.83 GAA are not stats that an elite goalie should have. He’s shown flashes of brilliance in some games, but it didn’t last. He MUST step up until the end of the year, as well as next year to the level that earned him multiple All-Star invitations. Matt Niskanen, Niklas Grossman and Philippe Boucher, all key members of their d-corp (Boucher until December), didn’t lived up to expectations. Thanks to the strong play of Stephane Robidas, the d-corp didn’t crumble as it could’ve.

On forward, everybody had a good season. Not exceptionnal, but good. Ribeiro is on pace for 80 points again. But he could shoot a lot more. Eriksson emerged as a legitimate top 6 forward and serious scoring threat. Steve Ott might hit the 20 goals mark. Modano has only 15 goals and 44 points, but can we expect 30 goals seasons from him again? If he hits 50 points mark, he can tell himself job done. Before he was injured, Richards was playing great, with 48 points in 56 games. Fabian Brunnstrom didn’t panned out as the top 6 forward everybody was expecting, but give the kid 1 more year at least. He still has 23 points in 47 games. Same for James Neal. His -10 is looking horrible, but his 23 goals are looking great. He should be a lot better next year. Mark Parrish was given a 2nd chance, and failed. He will likely play in Europe next year.

Now, we may ask questions about next year. Barring any major injuries like this year, they still look like a Cup contending team, if Turco can regain his All-star form. They’re perhaps 3 or 4 moves away from contending again.

1rst, let walk almost all the FA. Goodbye to Brendan Morrison, Landon Wilson, Darryl Sydor, Steve Begin, Joel Lundqvist, Mark Parrish and possibly Tobias Stephan.

Resign Jere Lehtinen, Chris Conner and Mark Fistric.

Lehtinen will have to take a slight paycut to stay. Not much, but still. 3 years, 8 millions. 4 millions the 1rst year, 3 the 2nd year and 1 million the last year.

Sign Conner to 2 years, 1.750 millions.

Same for Fistric.

2nd thing to do. Convince Sergei Zubov to play one more year. He will not make 5.3 millions, of course, but if he can stay healthy, he’s still a very valuable d-man.

How about a bonus-laced contract. 2.5 millions guaranteed. 750K if he plays 65 games. Another 750K if he scores 10 goals. Another 750K if he puts up 30 points. He could make 4.750 millions if he gets all his bonuses.

It’s really important to keep Zubov another year. Really. He’s been the dynamo of this team for so much year, and is still an elite puck-mover despite his age.

3rd thing to do. Of course, Zubov can’t handle 25+ minutes per game, and #1 duties. So you must find another #1. Obviously, Bouwmeester comes to mind, but he will likely command 7+ millions, so he’s too pricey. There’s 2 other options. Trade for Kaberle, or sign Matthias Ohlund. Ohlund should command around 5 millions. Kaberle makes 4.25 for 2 more years, but will cost a lot. I’d try Kaberle.

To Dallas : Tomas Kaberle

To Toronto : Jamie Benn, 1rst rounder 2010, 3rd rounder 09.

4th thing to do. Sign a good RW, possibly top 6. A few options : Mikael Samuelsson, Brian Gionta, Steve Sullivan, Petr Sykora, Mike Knuble.

Samuelsson, Knuble and Sullivan will cost between 2.5 and 3 millions.
Gionta and Sykora, 4+ millions.

I’d go with either Samuelsson or Knuble. There’s not a lot of big bodies up front for the Stars. They could use Samuelsson or Knuble’s grit. And they’re experts at screening the goalie. Knuble will likely stay in Philly, so give Samuelsson 3 years, 8.25 millions.

They must also sign a good backup goaltender. Turco is great, but 74 games a year is idiot. They must have someone to play around 15 games. Brian Boucher is a nice option, as well as Jason Labarbera and Clemmensen. Whoever signs, give him 2 years, 1 million per year.

Here you go, Dallas Stars of 2009-2010 :

Morrow – Ribeiro – Lehtinen
Eriksson – Richards – Ott
Neal – Modano – Samuelsson
Sutherby – Petersen – Brunnstrom
Barch, Conner

Kaberle – Daley
Zubov – Robidas
Niskanen – Grossman
Fistric

Turco
LaBarbera

All this, at 56,3 millions, just under the 56,7 millions cap (it will remain the same next year.

Sounds good?