Examining the Playoff Goalies

First a look at the playoff and possibly playoff bound goalies.

The Goalies – The backups included where some form of goal controversy may arise.

The West

Detroit

Joseph

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.39 GAA, .909 SPct, 16-10-3

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 122. Record: 58-62. GAA: 2.51.

    Colorado

    Aebischer

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.11GAA, .924 SPct, 30-18-9

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 1. Record: 0-0. GAA: 1.79.

    Salo

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.53GAA, .898 SPct, 18-18-7

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 21. Record: 5-16. GAA: 2.60.

    San Jose

    Nabokov

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.26 GAA, .920 SPct, 27-19-8

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 17. Record: 8-8. GAA: 2.59.

    Vancouver

    Cloutier

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.35 GAA, .911 Spct, 28-21-6

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 22. Record: 9-12. GAA: 3.43.

    Hedberg

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.51 GAA, .900 SPct, 8-6-2

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 18. Record: 9-9. GAA: 2.30.

    Dallas

    Turco

  • Current 03-04 stats: 1.98 GAA, .912 SPct, 36-21-13

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 12. Record: 6-6. GAA: 1.88.

    Calgary

    Kiprusoff

  • Current 03-04 stats: 1.69GAA, .933 SPct, 21-9-4

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 4. Record: 1-1. GAA: 1.91.

    Los Angeles

    Cechmanek

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.49 GAA, .904 SPct, 18-17-6

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 23. Record: 9-14. GAA: 2.33.

    Nashville

    Vokoun

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.57 GAA, .907 SPct, 31-27-10

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 0 Record: 0-0 GAA: N/A

    St. Louis

    Osgood

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.30 GAA, .909 SPct, 26-24-8

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 82 Record: 44-33. GAA: 2.23.

    Edmonton

    Conklin

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.43 GAA, .913 SPct, 15-13-4

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 0 Record: 0-0 GAA: N/A.

    Markkanen

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.44 GAA, .916 SPct, 9-13-3

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 1 Record: 0-0 GAA: 4.30

    East

    Tampa Bay

    Khabibulin

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.34 GAA, .910 SPct, 26-17-7

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 34 Record: 15-18 GAA: 2.65

    Grahame

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.03 GAA, .913 SPct, 17-9-1

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 1 Record: 0-1 GAA: 1.08 (111 minutes in that one game!)

    Philadelphia

    Esche

  • Current 03-04 stats: 1.87 GAA, .923 SPct, 21-8-6

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 1 Record: 0-0 GAA: 2.00

    Burke

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.83 GAA, .906 SPct, 15-20-7

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 34 Record: 12-22 GAA: 3.33

    Boston

    Raycroft

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.01 GAA, .929 SPct, 27-16-8

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 0 Record: 0-0 GAA: N/A

    Ottawa

    Lalime

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.34 GAA, .903 SPct, 24-23-7

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 34 Record: 18-16 GAA: 1.73

    Toronto

    Belfour

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.25 GAA, .913 SPct, 30-19-5

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 148 Record: 82-61 GAA: 2.17

    New Jersey

    Brodeur

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.04 GAA, .916 SPct, 35-24-11

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 139 Record: 83-56 GAA: 1.84

    Montreal

    Theodore

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.17 GAA, .923 SPct, 32-24-5

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 17 Record: 7-8 GAA: 2.65

    NY Islanders

    Dipietro

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.33 GAA, .913 SPct, 21-16-5

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 1 Record: 0-0 GAA: 0.00

    Buffalo

    Biron

  • Current 03-04 stats: 2.65 GAA, .908 SPct, 23-17-4

  • Post Season Stats: GP: 0 Record: 0-0 GAA: N/A

    The Playoff Goaltending Situation

    There are currently 3 goalies in the NHL who have won a Stanley Cup, Dominik Hasek notwithstanding. Those keepers, for the uneducated, are Ed Belfour, Martin Brodeur, and Chris Osgood. The only active net-minder who has won the cup more once is Brodeur.

    The “Proven” Goalie Debate

    I coin this a debate because analysts insist that a team cannot win with an “unproven” goaltender and fans of the game point to Patrick Roy as an example of an “unproven” goalie who won the cup. As with so much in this life, both of these points of view turn out to be over simplifications of the reality. Patrick Roy is an anomaly; “proven” is a subjective point of view or perhaps even an opinion.

    Patrick Roy is the only goalie in the past 15 years to have won without having playoff experience. Roy’s official stats list him as having played in 20 playoff games in 1986, the first year he won the cup… the first year he played in the playoffs. As of this writing, we have 7 possible goalies entering the playoffs with 1 playoff game of experience or less (Raycroft, Esche, Kiprusoff, Aebischer, Vokoun, Biron, and Dipietro). Of the 7 keepers, 6 will make the playoffs. If we base if off history, don’t expect the teams using these keepers as their starters to win the cup.

    A Brief Finals Keeper History

    (Year) WinnerLoser: (2003) Brodeur – Giguere (2002) Hasek – Irbe (2001) Roy – Brodeur (2000) Brodeur – Belfour (1999) Belfour – Hasek (1998) Osgood – Kolzig (1997) Vernon – Hextall/Snow (1996)Roy – Vanbiesbrouck (1995) Brodeur – Vernon (1994) Richter – McLean (1993) Roy – Hrudey (1992) Barrasso – Belfour (1991) Barrasso – Casey (1990) Ranford – Moog (1989) Vernon – Roy (1988) Fuhr – Moog/Lemelin (1987) Fuhr – Hextall (1986) Roy – Vernon (1985) Fuhr – Lindbergh (1984) Fuhr – Smith (1983) Smith – Fuhr/Moog (1982) Smith – Brodeur, Richard (1981) Smith – Meloche/Beaupre (1980) Smith – Peeters/Myre

    The “proven” goalie idea comes from the fact that only 11 goalies (Barrasso, Belfour, Brodeur, Fuhr, Smith, Ranford, Osgood, Hasek, Richter, Roy, and Vernon) have won the Stanley Cup going back to 1980. That’s only 11 goalies in 24 years. Smith, Fuhr, Brodeur, Roy, Vernon, and Barrasso are the goalies in that time frame to win it more than once and they account for 19 out of 24 cups, a testament to the ability of these keepers and the teams they played on. The only goalie of that caliber that is still playing is Brodeur (with Belfour having a chance to join them this year). Below is a breakdown of the number of different goalies to win in the last 2.4 decades of the NHL.

  • 1980s – 4 different goalies win

  • 1990s – 8 different goalies win

  • 2000s – 4 different goalies have won already

    These winning goalies fall into three categories: “virgins”, “been round a coupla times”, and “frustrated for years”.

    • “Virgins” (less than 10 playoff games experience)

      • Roy (0 Games)

    • “Been Round” (approximately 20 playoff games experience)

      • Fuhr (22 Games for 13-7)

      • Osgood (20 full playoff games 11-9),

      • Richter (20 playoff games 9-9)

      • Brodeur (3rd year pro, 18 games for 8 – 10)

    • “Frustrated” (30+ playoff games experience)

      • Vernon (4th year pro, 35 games for 18-16) Note: Vernon lost to Roy in ’86 as a rookie going 12-9 in the playoffs that year.

      • Smith (5th year pro, 30 games for 16 – 11)

      • Hasek (12th year pro, 74 games for 37 – 32)

      • Belfour (11th year pro, 85 games for 45 – 35)

      • Barrasso (10th year pro, 43 games for 22 – 19)

    The “Proven” Label

    In order to understand if a keeper deserves the label “proven”, the term itself needs clarification. Depending upon which definition you subscribe to, the “proven” label includes different goaltenders. Lets play with the definition to see what shakes out…

    If proven means “has won the cup before” (Brodeur, Belfour, Osgood) – Toronto, St. Louis, or New Jersey will win the cup this year. While Toronto and Jersey fans would love to have us believe this is what the analysts mean by proven, the fact of the matter is that no one can support this statement due to the inherent catch-22.

    Let’s assume that “proven” means “30+ playoff games experience” (e.g. Smith, Barrasso, Hasek, Belfour, Vernon) – Toronto, St. Louis, New Jersey, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia with Burke, or Ottawa win the cup this year. Aside from St. Louis, all these teams have a very good shot at winning this year. The fact remains that clearly goalies with less experience have won the cup in the last 25 years.

    Making the criteria for “proven” goalies “about 20 playoff games experience” (see 30 list and add Osgood, Fuhr, Richter, and Brodeur) – add to the list for 30 these teams: Colorado with Salo, San Jose, Vancouver (either keeper), Los Angeles, and Montreal.

    So is the “proven” goalie debate really a debate? No. No goalie has won the cup in the last 24 years with less than 18 playoff games experience except Roy. The exception losers (i.e. the losers that went played for the cup but lost with less that 18 games experience)?

  • Vernon ’86 when Roy and he were rookies.

  • Giguere ‘03

  • Casey ’91

  • Hextall ‘87

  • Lindberg ‘85

  • Moog ‘83

  • Beaupre ‘81

  • Peeters ‘80

    With the most generous definition of the term “proven” and ruling out a “Roy” anomaly, we end up with a list of 11 teams that actually have a chance to win the Stanley Cup.

  • Toronto

  • Ottawa

  • Tampa Bay

  • New Jersey

  • Philadelphia with Burke

  • Montreal

  • Detroit

  • Colorado with Salo

  • Los Angeles

  • San Jose

  • Vancouver

    The Skinny on Previous Cup Winners

    Belfour – The only previous cup winner that has a shot to win the it this year. The Leafs of course have to actually make it through rounds 1, 2, and 3. With the strength of the East this year, the Leafs’ best shot to get Belfour to the cup finals is by taking first and getting the Isles or the Sabres in the first round. Coming in anywhere else could be disastrous. Meeting the Devils could easily give the Leafs a first round exit.

    Brodeur – The Devils have never defended the title (i.e. won 2 years in a row) and they are not showing signs of doing it this year either. Perhaps Stevens is their savior, Stevens is the Devils’ emotional leader after all. Don’t think that there is no way Brodeur plays for the cup though… they reached game 7 and lost against Colorado in 2001. Stevens will reportedly be back for the playoffs in addition to Rafalski. Both players immediately make New Jersey a better team.

    Osgood – He may not even make the playoffs. At this point in his career, we can label him as average. Average goalies win the cup on remarkable teams. St. Louis is a good team with an average keeper. Expect a maximum of a first round exit out of Osgood and the Blues.

    Predictions based on the stats…

    At the time of this writing the standings were…

    Eastern Conf.

    1. Tampa Bay 99

    2. Philadelphia 98

    3. Boston 97

    4. Toronto 94

    5. Ottawa 93

    6. New Jersey 92

    7. Montreal 90

    8. NY Islanders 84

    Western Conf.

    1. Detroit 99

    2. Colorado 94

    3. San Jose 94

    4. Dallas 93

    5. Vancouver 91

    6. Calgary 88

    7. Edmonton 83

    8. Nashville 82

    The “Giggy” (rookie) keeper of ’04

    1. Kiprusoff – The safe bet to get “Giggy” with it.

    2. Raycroft – Only right behind Kiprs as the one to watch.

    3. Aebischer – Has had a good year, but nothing eye popping yet.

    4. Esche – Is he even going to be the starter for Philly?

    5. Vokoun – After the preds make the playoffs, they will be having fun. That always makes a team dangerous.

    6. Dipietro – Last place in the East… playing on an inconsistent team.

    If we assume that Philadelphia will start Esche and Colorado will start Aebischer, we are down to 9 possible teams that have a realistis shot at winning the cup. There is an X factor team in each conference that might be able to produce a Roy anomaly…

    In the East…

    Based upon the stats, 5 teams have a legit chance to win the cup here.

  • Toronto looks like the team to beat. They have everything in place. Solid from the pipes through the fourth line.

  • Ottawa’s goaltending and grit continue to be the big questions. Toronto beats them in the first.

  • Tampa Bay – everyone is expecting them to just go away which is their biggest asset heading into the playoffs… not to mention that they are currently matched-up against the Isles (course they are 1 – 4 against the Isles this year).

  • New Jersey has never successfully defended the cup… not saying that it is easy, just stating the facts

  • Montreal’s chances ride on teams underestimating them. Make no mistake this is a good team. If all the teams do underestimate them, look for them to beat Philadelphia in the quarters, Tampa in the semis, and Toronto in the finals.

  • X factor – Boston and Raycroft

    In the West

  • Detroit is the clear odds on favorite to come out of the west.

  • Vancouver has lost its way and it’s Bertuzzi. They lose to Dallas to open the playoffs.

  • Los Angeles may not even make the playoffs – will be a sacrificial lamb to Detroit, Colorado, or San Jose.

  • San Jose should go down to Detroit in the conf finals.

  • X factor – Calgary and Kiprusoff

    Oh the pain of not being able to back up Colorado with the stats… sorry boys. :@

    I hate to say it, but I’m looking for a Detroit – Toronto final. Won’t that be fun? Belfour vs. Cujo?

    TheDuk out.


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