Fergusons decision making

John Ferguson had a choice on draft day. Actually he had a lot of choices. Did he make the right one?Fergusons Draft day options were simple. He could have gone after the best goalie available via trade in Vokoun. He could have gone after the goalie who was easiest to aquire (Fernandez). He could have done nothing and signed a good backup like Garon or Aebischer. He could have done nothing and signed an experienced backup like Belfour or Joseph. While you can argue he overpaid for Toskala, it could have been a lot worse.

He could have gone after the best goalie available via trade in Vokoun.
This would have cost a 2008 1st, a 2008 2nd, a 2007 2nd, and likely a bit more, as the Leafs are a better team (with lower picks) than the Panthers. At the end of the day, the Leafs traded the pick in the weak draft, and saved the pick in the strong one next year. Plus Vokoun has close to a 6 million dollar cap hit.

He could have gone after the goalie who was easiest to aquire (Fernandez).
Fernandez is slightly overpaid, making the price on him lower. Most teams will only take him if they give useless salary back. At the end of the day, that 4.5 million dollar cap hit is nice to stay away from.

He could have done nothing and signed a good backup like Garon or Aebischer.
These guys are now the best of the Free agent goalies, and will cost more then they are worth. And none of these guys will win a bunch of games by themselves, or be any real improvement over Raycroft.

He could have done nothing and signed an experienced backup like Belfour or Joseph.
We do not want to go back to the Pat Quinn era of having an old team. Neither of these guys are playoff worthy at this point in their careers.

He DID trade for Toskala and Bell.
He traded away his top 2 picks in a weak draft for Toskala and Bell.
Toskala is a top 20 goaltender in the NHL. Maybe top 15. Raycroft fell off after 50-60 games last season, but did anyone else notice that he was very good during the first 30 games. Toskala has grown into a goaltender that can be great for 40 games a season. As has Raycroft. Sharing the load like this, helps a goalie stay healthy and Sharp come playoff time. Mark Bell is an interesting aquisition. He is a big gritty player, who often wears down other teams defenders. Sound like anyone… How about Antropov and Poni. Ferguson may have found a guy who can Play in between those two, freeing up Sundin to play with more skilled players.

Now my question for you is, What would you have done:

1. Trade your top 2 picks in the 07 draft for Toskala(1.35 mil) and Bell.
2. Trade your top 2 picks in the 08 draft plus an 07 2nd for Vokoun(5.7 mil).
3. Trade the fewest amount of picks for Fernandez(4.5 mil).
4. Sign Garon or Aebischer for 2 mil
5. Sign Belfour or Jospeh at a hometown discount.

So while I believe we gave up too much, it was the best option Ferguson had.


169 Responses to Fergusons decision making

  1. BLUE_AND_WHITE says:

    With Toskala in net, and Bell making up for O'neills point and goal totals (roughly), the Leafs offense should be the same, and defensively better.
    If you look at the Stats http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?p=597
    Toskala is about an average goalie. San Jose's goaltending on average saved about 9 goals more than their defense would have normally permitted. Raycroft let in 40 more. Average it out, we'll likely see a reduction of about 25 goals against.

    so roughly 260 goals for and 245 goals against, goal differential of about 15 good for about 7th in the east

  2. Glucker says:

    no, without Tucker and Wellwood our PP plummets… McCabe was on, and it plummeted

  3. Glucker says:

    actually we both read them wrong, we where an average team at giving up point blankers, but Raycroft was actually best in the league at handling them… interesting

  4. RealisticLeaf says:

    WOW…two of the best scorers the Leafs have ( who are forwords) are out and the power play goes down…but that is McCabes fault? I would love to hear this kind of reasoning…but i am affraid i will get a headache.

    My God man…think before you type…lol

  5. Glucker says:

    wanna see facts?

    McCabe is about 8th in the league for giveaways, when adjusted for possible mistakes, but as 3rd in the league. Considering where he is likely to give it away, in the Defensive zone, or at the point in the Offensive Zone, these giveaways lead to shots from the 11-15ft range, which was hard for Raycroft to handle this year.

    my stats:
    giveaways:
    http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/?page_id=507

    shots, raycroft:
    http://www.hockeyanalysis.com/images/teamshootingpercentageagainstbyshotdistance.png

    wanna argue some more?

  6. Pony says:

    And without McCabe it would've been worse. Wellwood and Tucker have McCabe to thank for the room they get down low from such tight coverage teams keep on McCabe because they're wary of his booming shot.

    Leetch himself said McCabe had Norris potential someday, though I dont agree, he is a very talented defensemen.

  7. Glucker says:

    McCabe isn't vital to the powerplay. the only guys i wouldn't want to loose on our PK(both lines) are Tucker, Wellwood and Kaberle. even 1 of those 3 gone means our PP is dead

  8. RealisticLeaf says:

    You don't have to post links…i believe you as i looked it up long ago. I NEVER argued that FACT with you. It is the rest of the stats that i argue with you over. Man you are thick!!!!!!!!!

    So one stat which i NEVER argued with you. And that makes you right? That makes you right about everything. You can't even argue the plus minus with me…cause you know i am right!!

    I can post manny stats that would show you that McCabe is a better all around d man. But it does not matter cause you don't understand or care…you just think your right.

    You think one stat makes him a bad d man? You sir are sad!!

    Also if you could read…you would see i challenged you to post more then this one stat…how bout points…ice time…plus minus other then this past season( and mcCabe was only off by four points which again…i will point out that is that McCabe was only on the ice for four more goals then Kubina and given that McCabe is on the ice a whole lot more then Kubine should tell you that you are wrong).

    Post me past few seasopn stats…don't bother i already looked at them as an informed person would know…McCabe is the better of the two of them. Even in the stanley cup season the bolts had with Kubina…McCabe had a better season all around!!

    Don't challenge me…i already challenged you and this is all you have.

    You only show your obvious lack of hockey knowledge by going any further.

    You are right…McCabe does turn it over a lot…i NEVER said otherwise with this. But i said and keep saying McCabe is a better all around d man then Kubina. Stats do not lie. And you have none other then this to back you up.

    Besides…as i already mentioned…go argue with Maurice…as to who should be on the ice in the final minutes of a game. Which as i should point out is the time in the game where you put in your best DEFENSIVE players…if you are leading. But i guess the head coach who has been around the game for a lot longer then you and I is wrong too?

    I have tried to sway you with facts…but that is not enough for you. FACTS do not work for you. What would it take…i shutter to think what it would take.

    I will point out the obvious no further as you can't see it…I said good day!!

  9. Pony says:

    For starters you have no idea where most of his giveaways are, many of them could be in the neutral zone and on the PP. So in turn you have no idea what kind of effect these are having on Raycroft so your stats are essentially useless.

    McCabe was also third in the NHL for ice time and spends alot of time with the puck so is more apt to give it away, just like Lidstrom and Thornton.

    The fact that he is still a plus player with many of his points comming on the PP proves that even though he gives up the puck at an alarming rate it isn't that big of a problem.

  10. RealisticLeaf says:

    I will warn you….some people around here don't think stats matter(Glucker) so you may end up pounding your head against a wall.

    Kubina a better d man then McCabe….cuase of one stat…go figure.

    Ya you are completely right…they will be a lot better. Toskala's own team mates said he is the second coming of Kipper…and look what Kipper has done.

    I am very excited that the Leafs finaly have a good goaltender. Toskala has the ability to steal games…Raycrap was given the chance last season( a record number of chances) and never stole a single game!!!!! He always in just about every game let in a bad goal or more. Remember the slow shot that blew through his glove like al mcinnis shot it?LMAo…how can you let that in when you are trying to get in the playoffs in the last game of the season? Remember the Buffalo game…OMG…he was brutal!!!

    By the way…and feel free to use this everyone… how bad does a lame duck GM like JFJ know that Raycrap was a mistake and a terrible goalie by addressing the same need next season. That will tell you how awful Raycrap is!! You could see a few times last season that JFJ was frustrated by him…they showed his emotions on some of the bad goals…he did not look too happy.

    Good stat finding and converting by the way BLUE_AND_WHITE. Excellent educated point made!!

  11. nordiques100 says:

    this is all based on the fact the guy kept and rewarded hansomely the same guys who did NOT help the team win the last couple of seasons.

    he'll continue that trend getting blake. he isnt a guy who will help a team win. he's old. he is not a leader. he seems like a me first type of player. and he isnt someone who would mesh well with the leadership group the leafs have in sundin, tucker, kaberle, mccabe. he is a twerp.

    if they want old, i rather them get shanahan….or the brittle peter forsberg. heck i rather see lindros back. anyone but jason blake.

  12. BLUE_AND_WHITE says:

    well, he's nuts. Kubina has no weak points about his game, but he has no really strong ones either. McCabe is AS good defensively, and MUCH BETTER offensively.

    I can seesome players underperforming this year, those being Tucker, Stajan, Pohl, Gill. Stajan and pohl are 3rd liners, who will likely spent a good amount of time on the 4th line (Barring major injuries) and it will hurt thgey're production. Also if we aquire a scoring winger, Tucker will lose PP time. Gill…. the big tough PK players can be awesome one season, and crash during another. Berg had a GREAT season b4 the lockout. After, he just crashed. But last season he had a great year in europe.

  13. nordiques100 says:

    ware, convery, cereda, fichaud, trading away the picks to get niedermayer, luongo, the ones this year, rask, the one in the owen nolan trade, the one in the leetch deal.

    antropov was an ok pick….but alex tanguay, robyn regher, scott gomez, simon gagne were just some of hte guys picked after antropov in that draft. i blame anders hedberg for that. he ran the draft so we knew a euro was going to be picked then. same goes when he picked cereda. hedberg was the type of guy who liked to go off the board so that if these risks panned out he would look like a draft god. instead he was a draft dog.
     
    i do agree the leafs have done a decent job at the draft, but a team like the wings has been a playoff team every year since the early 90s and while still trading picks they have drafted very well plus won 3 cups. the leafs have been up and down since that time, with countless opportunities to get good young players but they simply fell flat on their face. and they wasted several years with a weak scouting staff that only seemed to scout the boundaries of the GTA. and of course, all the moves involving trading of youth for grizzled vets has never panned out for them.  

  14. DJTOKid says:

    Yah nothing wrong with players drafted by the Leafs. It's just the fact that thy trade all there picks away. Brad Boyes kills me that trade was horriawful, that is one nice thing bout the cap era, is the Leafs are forced to stop tradeing all there future for older veteran players.

  15. DJTOKid says:

    K bud you need to get a grip on reality. Blake is old, but not THAT old and he scored 40 goals last year playing with Yashin, who we know takes alot of nights off. The best part of Blakes game is exactly what the Leafs need…SPEED!!! The guy is lightning quick and would easily put up 40 again playing with Sundin and/or Wellwood. He doesn't need to be a leader, that will be left up to Sundin, Tucker, amd mccabe, so no pressure for Blake, just go out and play.

    I wouldn't sign him for anything more then 2 years maybe 3 if the price was right.

  16. sikboy21 says:

    Tucker started his NHL career as a centre aw well.

  17. mojo19 says:

    RealisticLeaf, you're way off. McCabe got so much more ice time because he logged so many PP minutes. If Kubina got big PP minutes (with Kaberle mind you) he would put up big numbers.

    Basically, give Kubina McCabes pp time and he scores more goals because his shot is better and he doesn't cough it up forcing him to take a penalty to stop a potential breakaway he caused like McCabe every 5 games.

    Kubina is better than McCabe. No more discussion

  18. mojo19 says:

    I agree with the things you guys are saying about Toskala, but cannot agree about McCabe. Give Kubina the first unit PP time and he scores about as many goals, similar points and doesn't get as many stupid McCabe penalties. (The ones where McCabe blasts it at the first guy coming towards him then almost gives up a breakaway and grabs the guy – it happened about 9 or 10 times last year.)

  19. wingedim says:

    PLEASE Let him become like KIPPER!!! LOL
    Having lived in Cleveland when Toskala was there playing for the Lumberjacks/Barons, I'm glad to see him doing as well as he has up to now. I just now hope that now that he is in the 'fishbowl' of the meida frenzy of Toronto he can maintain his growth as an elite goaltender

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