Numbers: why the Leafs can't sign a big name UFA

There is lots of rumors seeing the Leafs aquire top tier free agents like Gomez, Smyth, Kariya, Blake; and even second tier guys like Bertuzzi and Nagy. However, in an NHL governed by the salary cap, this cannot happen.The Leafs cap hits for next season:

Forwards
Tucker, Darcy – 3 million
Sundin, Mats – 5.5 million
Wellwood, Kyle – 0.875 million

Ponikarovsky, Alexei – 2.1 million
Bell, Mark – 2.167 million
Antropov, Nik – 2.1 million

Steen, Alex – 0.9 million
Stajan, Matt – 0.875 million
Devereaux, Boyd – 0.575 million

Kilger, Chad – 0.9 million
Pohl, John – 0.463 million
Newbury, Kris – 0.5 million

Ondrus, Ben – 0.5 million
Belak, Wade – 0.67 million

Defense
Kaberle, Thomas – 4.25 million
Kubina, Paval – 5 million

McCabe Bryan – 5.75 million
Colaiacovo, Carlo – 1.3 million

Gill, Hal – 2.1 million
White, Ian – 0.850 million

Wozniewski, Andy – 0.463 million

Goal
Toskala, Vesa – 1.375 million
Raycroft, Andrew – 2 million

Buyouts: Belfour 0.77 million

This is 23 roster players with a combined cap hit of 45 million dollars. The cap is expected to be around 49 million dollars. The Leafs will want to have a cap hit of about 48 million to give them wiggle room later in the season. This means the Leafs have 3 million dollars (plus the salary of the player sent down) to spend on July 1st.

But lets say the leafs forget wiggle room, go straight to the cap spending 4-4.5 million dollars a year, with a multiyear deal, on a forward like Kariya.
Well the leafs would be fine this season, but what about next season.

Sundin will want to resign for 5 million
Wellwood will want 3 million
Steen will want 2 million
Stajan will want 1.5 million
Pohl will want 1 million
Toskala will want 4 million

Tucker, Darcy – 3 million
Sundin, Mats – 5 million
Wellwood, Kyle – 3 million

Ponikarovsky, Alexei – 2.1 million
Bell, Mark – 2.167 million
Antropov, Nik – 2.1 million

Steen, Alex – 2 million
Stajan, Matt – 1.5 million
Kariya, paul – 4.5 million

Kilger, Chad – 0.9 million
Pohl, John – 1 million
Devereaux, Boyd – 0.575 million

Newbury, Kris – 0.5 million
Ondrus, Ben – 0.5 million

Defense
Kaberle, Thomas – 4.25 million
Kubina, Paval – 5 million

McCabe Bryan – 5.75 million
Colaiacovo, Carlo – 1.3 million

Gill, Hal – 2.1 million
White, Ian – 0.850 million

Wozniewski, Andy – 0.463 million

Goal
Toskala, Vesa – 4 million
Raycroft, Andrew – 2 million

It would cost the leafs 55 million to bring back the team, and I guarantee that the cap will not be 55 million.

So my warning to John Ferguson is, do NOT spend right to the cap before the season starts, and do NOT give anyong a multi year deal.


82 Responses to Numbers: why the Leafs can't sign a big name UFA

  1. ShadysBackRJ says:

    I'm pretty sure Woz, Newbury, and Ondrus can be sent down so their contracts wouldn't count.

    And knowing the Leafs we'll probly get some injuries so that will free up some space;)

  2. DoubleDown says:

    oh? so he'll be nearing thortnon, iginla, crosby-like production?

  3. DoubleDown says:

    you finished in 18th place. you were not a good team. you a lousy team, in the bottom half of the league. and you'll keep thinking it was all raycroft until october rolls around and you're right back where you were last season….win one lose on…

  4. BLUE_AND_WHITE says:

    it WAS raycroft. Just like it WAS goaltending that stopped the avs from making it. The difference is the leafs had the balls to solve that proble. The leafs were a very good team with a dreadful goalie last season. contrary to the habs, who had a shit team with amazing goaltending

  5. BLUE_AND_WHITE says:

    i can see him leading the leafs in scoring. if everyone but 120 point scorers are 2nd tier then I'll take all the 2nd tier players I can get.

  6. orlandomac says:

    First of all… I have to commend Blue and White for all the effort… although it looks like the Cap will be over 50 Mil so that changes things slightly… and there are some possibilities for additions…

    I saw many errors along the way… or things I disagreed with… through this whole debate…

    I will point form them to make it easier…

    Toskala is going to be resigned for more… I would guess 3 mil…

    DoubleDown… the money goes up every year… in a few years time Wellwood could be on the same money as some of those you listed with half the points… that is reality… it is not about worth…

    Milohabs… Gill led the Leafs in plus minus at +11… just because he is soft doesn't mean he wasn't productive… he is a bargain nowadays… although I'm not his biggest fan either… and McCabe is a liability on the ice…

    shakrmakr he has been GM for 4 yrs Quinn only handcuffed him for the first he is to blame for everything else… which in all fairness to Quinn ( and I wasn't his biggest fan) we made the playoffs every year when he was GM and competed… 2 consecutive with JFJ at the helm…

    prairiehab Razor was constantly beat by shots with a defence in position… his angles are bad… and for a 6'0 Goalie he looks 5'3 and takes up as much net as an Ethopian Marathon runner… he has the reflexes of 45 yr old netminder in his prime… and could always be counted on to give up a back breaking goal..

    For those thinking allot of Leaf Players can go to the Marlies… quite a few have to clear waivers to do so… Kronwall, Woz, White, Ondrus, and so on…. we will lose allot of Players that way.. hopefully Kilger, Belak, Pohl, and a few others… not sure what exactly counts against the cap… some of it will

    Senators101 you are right in a way… Kariya did that in the past… but going to Nashville to a team that just made the playoffs…
    doesn't fit your theory either…

    Glucker as for 4.5 Million on the option year of Sundin… that was if he didn't play and was bought out… the full salary for playing would have been in the neighbourhood of 6.5… so we saved a mil…

    If you gentlemen didn't realize the reason Sundin signed for only a year… is real simple… he is a Team guy… and bleeds blue…

    If the Leafs do well all is good… if they don't he can be traded to a contender so that the Leafs can get some draft picks… and then he can take a run at a CUp…. and then be a FREE AGENT… come July… and return to the Leafs for another ONE YEAR CONTRACT…

    You guys with an axe to grind with this guy over Gilmour and Clark should have gotten over it by now… he has been the best Leaf Captain of all time… but hasn't been rewarded for it… with a strong enough team around him when we had the chance… and some Stanley Cups to show for it… anyone that can take our medias harrassment for this many years… and fans for that matter… I've seen this guy sliced and diced repeatedly… stitched up.. and back on the ice… he will never be the fighter or hitter that Clark was… or as short and racious as Gilmour… but he has more GWG, or OT winners then those two combined… and has always been at the top of the GWG's list his whole career…. he is a Team Player nuff said…

    Anjello enough with Calder the career minus hero….

    the_next_agent whats with you and Anjello… Repitilitous… there will be no trade with New York for Blake or Smyth… they are UFA's… and Boynton is on waivers no need to trade for a free guy… there is no need for D in Toronto.. only getting rid of some… preferably McCabe… besides McCabe will make over 6 mil this year close to seven… his contract is front loaded… it averages out to over 5 mil a season  but I believe he only makes 3 mil in his last year… because the big head will want to try to win a cup then… the selfish ***** that he is will ensure the Leafs don't… with his contract… but miracles do happen… I do pray every day…

    Glucker what says… McCabe's contract has a no movement clause… he can't be sent down… he can't be waived… he can't be traded… get with the program… you know the one everyone else is reading… that has facts….

    KingCanada it is in the Leafs interest to ink him now… 3 Mil neighbourhood… even Raycroft isn't hurting us that bad because of that JFJ thought… and at worst they can buy Razor out… besides Toskala is a different story.. and will be well worth it… he will be a huge improvement… at a reasonable price… compared to other Goalies who are coming up for contract.. he will still be cheaper as a starter than Gerber… who will back up in Ottawa… and many other goalies in the league… I think he is a great investment… at 3 mil yr for 4 yrs… which is what I would sign him too…

    who will make near 4 Mil…

  7. orlandomac says:

    First of all… I have to commend Blue and White for all the effort… although it looks like the Cap will be over 50 Mil so that changes things slightly… and there are some possibilities for additions…

    I saw many errors along the way… or things I disagreed with… through this whole debate…

    I will point form them to make it easier…

    Toskala is going to be resigned for more… I would guess 3 mil…

    DoubleDown… the money goes up every year… in a few years time Wellwood could be on the same money as some of those you listed with half the points… that is reality… it is not about worth…

    Milohabs… Gill led the Leafs in plus minus at +11… just because he is soft doesn't mean he wasn't productive… he is a bargain nowadays… although I'm not his biggest fan either… and McCabe is a liability on the ice…

    shakrmakr he has been GM for 4 yrs Quinn only handcuffed him for the first he is to blame for everything else… which in all fairness to Quinn ( and I wasn't his biggest fan) we made the playoffs every year when he was GM and competed… 2 consecutive with JFJ at the helm…

    prairiehab Razor was constantly beat by shots with a defence in position… his angles are bad… and for a 6'0 Goalie he looks 5'3 and takes up as much net as an Ethopian Marathon runner… he has the reflexes of 45 yr old netminder in his prime… and could always be counted on to give up a back breaking goal..

    For those thinking allot of Leaf Players can go to the Marlies… quite a few have to clear waivers to do so… Kronwall, Woz, White, Ondrus, and so on…. we will lose allot of Players that way.. hopefully Kilger, Belak, Pohl, and a few others… not sure what exactly counts against the cap… some of it will

    Senators101 you are right in a way… Kariya did that in the past… but going to Nashville to a team that just made the playoffs…
    doesn't fit your theory either…

    Glucker as for 4.5 Million on the option year of Sundin… that was if he didn't play and was bought out… the full salary for playing would have been in the neighbourhood of 6.5… so we saved a mil…

    If you gentlemen didn't realize the reason Sundin signed for only a year… is real simple… he is a Team guy… and bleeds blue…

    If the Leafs do well all is good… if they don't he can be traded to a contender so that the Leafs can get some draft picks… and then he can take a run at a CUp…. and then be a FREE AGENT… come July… and return to the Leafs for another ONE YEAR CONTRACT…

    You guys with an axe to grind with this guy over Gilmour and Clark should have gotten over it by now… he has been the best Leaf Captain of all time… but hasn't been rewarded for it… with a strong enough team around him when we had the chance… and some Stanley Cups to show for it… anyone that can take our medias harrassment for this many years… and fans for that matter… I've seen this guy sliced and diced repeatedly… stitched up.. and back on the ice… he will never be the fighter or hitter that Clark was… or as short and racious as Gilmour… but he has more GWG, or OT winners then those two combined… and has always been at the top of the GWG's list his whole career…. he is a Team Player nuff said…

    Anjello enough with Calder the career minus hero….

    the_next_agent whats with you and Anjello… Repetilitous… there will be no trade with New York for Blake or Smyth… they are UFA's… and Boynton is on waivers no need to trade for a free guy… there is no need for D in Toronto.. only getting rid of some… preferably McCabe… besides McCabe will make over 6 mil this year close to seven… his contract is front loaded… it averages out to over 5 mil a season  but I believe he only makes 3 mil in his last year… because the big head will want to try to win a cup then… the selfish ***** that he is will ensure the Leafs don't… with his contract… but miracles do happen… I do pray every day…

    Glucker what says… McCabe's contract has a no movement clause… he can't be sent down… he can't be waived… he can't be traded… get with the program… you know the one everyone else is reading… that has facts….

    KingCanada it is in the Leafs interest to ink him now… 3 Mil neighbourhood… even Raycroft isn't hurting us that bad because of that JFJ thought… and at worst they can buy Razor out… besides Toskala is a different story.. and will be well worth it… he will be a huge improvement… at a reasonable price… compared to other Goalies who are coming up for contract.. he will still be cheaper as a starter than Gerber… who will back up in Ottawa… and many other goalies in the league… I think he is a great investment… at 3 mil yr for 4 yrs… which is what I would sign him too…

    who will make near 4 Mil…

  8. habs_punk says:

    When Montreal was firing on all cylinders, they were an amazing team with amazing goaltending. The consistency fell apart as the season wore on, and they'd get excellent goaltending but nothing on the scoring front, or vice versa. The goaltending was solid more often than the scoring, but it didn't matter in the end, obviously.

    Blaming the season on Raycroft is such a cop-out. They missed the playoffs, thats it. So did Montreal. Both teams were in the bottom half of the league. Both teams sucked. You can't blame an 82 game failure of a season on one person.

    The only reason they were even close to the playoffs was Maurice. Without him as coach, Toronto would have easily been looking at a top 10 pick (maybe better trade bait than the number 13 pick) last week.

  9. habs_punk says:

    That's a very bold prediction. And so, I'll make one of my own. Sunday will come around, and you will be proved absolutely wrong.

  10. dcz28 says:

    I just had to reply to this one…Leafs were an average team with a below average overall team defense and bad goaltending. Toskala is an improvement at first glance but San Jose was a much better team infront of him then Toronto will be so he might not be the saviour Leaf fans think he might be unless they bring in some defenseman that can actually can play in their own zone.

    Sorry to say but the Leafs are still a long way away from becoming a championship contending team.

  11. DoubleDown says:

    only in toronto can an 18th-place team be a very good team. nothing to say, really. you guys keep thinking that.

    but last year, from top to bottom, montreal=toronto. if you think any differently, you're nothing but a blind homer.

    and go look at the habs stats my friend–huet had average numbers, halak decent, and aebischer brutal. but maybe in toronto, average is amazing…

  12. BLUE_AND_WHITE says:

    actually in terms of shots and shot location(i.e forcing more shots from longer distances) the leafs should have had the 8th best defense in the league, not the 29th

  13. BLUE_AND_WHITE says:

    watch a few games. The leafs had more offense, played better 5 on 5, and battle tough injuries to key players. the habs had a streaky start and a deadly PP, not unlike the leafs of 05-06

  14. BLUE_AND_WHITE says:

    true, with an idiot like carbs behind the bench, the leafs could have done much worse. but if you watched the leafs for 82 games like I did, you'd know how brutal it was. The team would battle hard, tie the game, and allow 2 shots in 10 minutes, then all of a sudden a lazy wrister off the faceoff beats raycroft. Its demoralizing.

  15. REALeafan says:

    Whoa, whoa slow down fellas I have not been pleased with the way most of the moves JFJ made turned out but some of them at the time I thought were great for what he had to work with, Raycroft was (and still is) a good young goalie with a boatload of potential at just 26 the move by JFJ to bring in Toskala looks great to, you get a goalie who is used to being a backup with starter skills for one year at what? Million and a half? Very affordable for a great goalie who will push Raycroft and more importantly ease his workload. JFJ is not done here, by trade by RFA, by FA he will make the team better WITHIN the cap, hell he already has. GO LEAFS GO!

  16. AHLoldie says:

    Plus these players all have two way contracts, which are considerably higher when they get called up to the big club.  You don't get them at their minor league salary.  This then adds to the cap.

  17. AHLoldie says:

    If the cap goes to 50Mil, the league will be back in the same mess they were in five years ago.  Only two or maybe three teams will be able to show a profit.  You can't make more than 35 to 38 Million on total sellouts.  25 to 28 teams can't make up the 12 Mil difference.  The whole purpose of the lockout season was to keep salaries from getting out of hand and turning into another baseball type mess.  Well, the mess is fast approaching!

  18. Grimreaper_11 says:

    I can only assume your referring to Brendan Bell, who is no loner with the leafs, he was traded with a pick for Yanic Perreault last year…

  19. Hoondog2 says:

    Bertuzzi is 31 years old!  He hasn't played much hockey in the last 3 years, so I can understand why it took him a little while to get going in Detroit. 

  20. Hoondog2 says:

    I'm referring to Mark Bell, who is still young at age 26.

  21. DoubleDown says:

    think what you want. it just seems like expectations are embassingly low in toronto.

    and i can fully admit that the habs sucked last year and might miss out again this year. but at least our GM is building a club from the ground up, not with scraps from around the league.

  22. BLUE_AND_WHITE says:

    well, when you're coach crashes you into the ground, you gotta start somewhere. i guess the habs can hope for taveras sweepstakes in 09

  23. the_word says:

    Be easy on Carbs, at now Montreal has a coach that can read.

  24. jpmac says:

    atleast he won a cup with montreal, more than any toronto coach can say about coaching torinto, they haven't won one in how many years

  25. jpmac says:

    and jfj is doing a great job not crashing toronto into the ground..hahah

  26. the_word says:

    Yeah, because Montreal winning a cup 15 years ago really matters.  What have the Habs done since?  Oh yeah, they've made the second round once. 

  27. bleeds_blue_n_white says:

    Why is the development of the youth that has been occurring these past few years get overlooked? Under JFJ, the Leafs have been building and developing talent better than any period in recent memory.

    Currently keeping Kaberle, Steen, Stajan, Wellwood, White and Coliacovo, fending off trade rumours for the likes of Pronger, et all, and drafting and retaining:

    • Pogge (the goalie of the future)
    • Stralman (one of the best DMen in the Swedish Elite League last year and a bona fide Blue Chip Defense Prospect)
    • Kulemin (one of the best snipers in the Russian Elite League last year and also a Blue Chip Prospect
    • Tlusty, Earl, Williams…

    JFJ has made some bad, or ill advised moves, from our perspective, but he is young (turning 40) and learning. He also has had to work with Pat Quinn over his shoulder and a board that is split on extending his contract or firing him.

    How well do you do at your job if you feel you may be terminated at any time?

    The Raycroft deal was a gamble that so far has not panned out. But what was his alternative at the time? No solid goaltenders in camp, non on the FA Market… And if you look at Raycroft's stats, they consistantly go worse as the season wore on. A 72 game season. The guy was fatigued.

    Split the duties, or at least lighten the load and Raycroft will fair much better. Plus, we now have an insurance policy in Toskala. Two proven NHL calibre goalies. For a solid prospect and two picks in a very weak draft.

    Before anyone starts, why did Esposito fall so far off the board? From the consensus 1st overall at the start of the season to a late 1st rounder.

    Also, ALEXEI CHEREPANOV fall to the mid to late 1st round. Why? Transfer agreement with Russia? Poor work habits? Does anyone see another Samsonov here? If so, what would Leaf fans say then?

    No matter how you slice it, JFJ is going to get roasted. He works in the largest "Fish Tank" going and is going to be analyzed, second guessed and cajoled for every move.

    Let's face it, he is no Cliff Fletcher (the man who raped and pillaged our farm system in the early 90's), and he is no Pat Quinn (the guy who traded away Steve Sullivan, Brad Boyes, Alyn McCauley and Jason Smith because he prefers vets over developing youth).

    Just my $0.02

  28. Aetherial says:

    As a Leafs fan, I am sad to say that I believe you are correct in your assessment.

  29. Aetherial says:

    I believe one of Belfour or Domi is still on the books.

  30. Aetherial says:

    That is a HORRIBLE price to pay if Toskala is "mentoring" Raycroft.

    The only way this deal works well is…

    The Leafs get rid of Raycroft (or Toskala magically makes him a good #1 starter)

     OR

    Toskala proves he is a bona fide top notch goalie and the Lefs sign him for 3-3.5 for 3+ years

    If one of those things does not happen, then it was a brutal trade.

    Remember the names Esposito and Cherepanov.

  31. Grimreaper_11 says:

    ahhh yes, right, my mistake, sorry bout that

  32. Hoondog2 says:

    eh, no problem!

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