Hockey Trade Rumors

Oilers playoff bound??!!: a comprehensive analysis I hear quite a few of the Oilers bashers saying that the Oilers will likely be one of five worst teams in the league. This may come true if the Oilers are as unlucky and disadvantaged as they were last season. They had the most things that could go wrong going south. They had injuries, fatigue, wrong trade and weak D on their plate. Because I know the Oiler had to burden the hindering elements last season, I have a very different opinion than most of you. I am predicting that the Oilers will be a playoff team in the upcoming season. I am not saying just because they get Penner. And post your replies. I am very interested in reading articulate and reasonable arguments. 

Injuries:
The core group of the Oilers was on the injured list a lot last season. Nearly every key player, like Stoll, Hemsky, Moreau, Tjarnqvist, and Staios, missed about a third of the season or more. Of course, injury is a part of the game and the teams have to play with it. Still, it is nearly impossible to win consistently with the core of the team injured a third of a season. Jaret Stoll (the second line center) missed 30 games in the middle of his hot streak. Moreau, who is an emotional leader of the team, missed 75 games. He scored 20 goals a couple seasons ago, too. Hemsky, the star of the team, missed 18 games. Staios, one of the top four D, missed 34 games. And Tjarnqvist, who had the second best offensive skill as a defense man behind Bergeron in the team missed more than half of the season.

Weak D:The year before, the Oilers had Chris Pronger, Spacek, Tarnstrom, Marc-andre Bergeron and still barely made the playoffs and had a great run at the Cup. Now, last season, the Oilers didn’t have Pronger, Spacek, or Tarnstrom. They tried to replace their skills with Bergeron and Tjarnqvist. Tjarnqvist was injured for 45 games anyway. Their D men had little skill in making the first pass except for the absent Tjarnqvist and Bergeron. They couldn’t get the puck out of their own zone because of that.

Fatigue:After the 2005~2006 Stanley Cup finals, the Oilers had only about 2 month of rest and so did the Hurricanes. If you watched the finals, you may remember the players from the both teams sacrificing their bodies to block the puck. I remember Glen Wesley, a Hurricane, blocking the puck with his knee and then going down like a sack of potatoes. And I remember cringing after seeing Shawn Horcoff, an Oiler, blocking a hard slap shot by, I think, Nick Lidstrom or Mathieu Schnieder about 4 feet away from the blade of the stick in the first round of the playoffs. And they did it all the way to the seventh game of the Stanley Cup final. The Oilers and Hurricanes were both hurt and tired after the finals and didn’t have enough time to recuperate and re-energize properly. It is extremely tough to win the Cup back to back because the cup run is so demanding and abrasive on the most players. Fatigue contributed to the both team not making the playoffs and playing poorly in general. Now they have rested and recharged their batteries, they will be ready to play in the upcoming season more so than last season.

The leadership question: As hard as it is to believe, the Oilers were leading the division in last December, they were doing well, and they slowly went downhill until the trade deadline due to injuries and fatigue and losing Smyth at the deadline finished the job. After Ryan Smyth got traded to the Islanders, the Oilers had the record of 2 wins and 18 losses. The team just plummeted from 9th place in the Western conference to 12th Unfortunately, Kevin Lowe deflated the passion and energy out of the entire team when he traded away Smyth. The burning question here is will they have the leadership they need since Smyth and the captain of the team Jason Smith are gone? Moreau, Staios, Pasani and Horcoff are still with the team and they were the assistance captains for some years now.

Void left by Smyth:
Can Penner replace the 36 goals by Ryan Smyth? I think Penner just may explode into a great power forward and that seems to be in the calculation behind the offer sheet by Kevin Lowe. Penner definitely seems to have the potential. He scored 29 goals in his second season. He may have a bad year too like Lupul did. This is just a speculation. If we start speculating, why not assume Smyth might have a bad year due to injuries? He played over 70 games in only two of his last five seasons. If we assume that Ryan Smyth may have a good year, it’s fair to speculate that Penner probably will fill the void left by Smyth in terms of scoring goals with help of his youth, health, size and potential going for him. Of which, Smyth doesn’t have.

Improved production from the new D:
The Oilers have Souray who has the best point shot and the most PP goals in the league. Just a side note. He chose Edmonton over other market because he wanted to play for the Oilers. Yani Pitkanen is 23rd in points among NHL defensemen with 43 points and that’s on his really bad season. The PP units seem to be ready to rack up some serious points. Perhaps, they just could have top five in the point production from defensemen if the stars align for the Oilers. Here is why. Souray will probably put out about the same number or a 40 points season if he refocuses on playing defense. That’s about 24 points drop from the last season. The big question mark is on Pitkanen. A couple of years ago, Pitkanen were touted as the next best defense man in the league. He had 46 points in 58 games and +22 in plus/minus ratings and 11% shooting percentage in his second year. The Flyers were the envy of the league for having him. Of course, he played well below his expectation last season. Last season, the entire flyers were playing poor maybe except for Simone Gagne anyway. And they were playing Pitkanen way too much as well which made him ineffective. Now, he will share the load with Souray and Tarnstrom and Staios, Greene and Smid (he is 21 and developing). With less pressure and stress, he may get back to his days of a Norris trophy winner caliber plays.

Can Souray and Pitkanen play D if at all?:
The main question is here whether they know how to play D or not? Souray has the worst plus/minus rating and Pitkanen has the second worst plus/minus rating in the league. This seems like a recipe for disaster. Souray did admit that he has the worst plus/minus rating in the league. He explains it by saying that he focused so much on playing offense last couple of years he neglected playing defense. Again, the entire Canadien played poorly as well. And he does have the ability to play D. He had plus 4 rating a couple seasons ago. And he was known for his defensive plays in the early part of his career. Pitkanen had a plus 22 rating a couple seasons ago. Both of them have the potential to be solid defensemen. The Oilers have Charlie Huddy, who is a masterful defense coach. He is the one who coached the defense core when the Oilers went to the Cup final. When Ninnima was an Oiler, Charlie somehow managed to contain his habit of making horrible defensive plays. He played very well as an Oiler. He was an All Star in one year. After Ninnima left Edmonton, his play noticeable decline over the years in the Islander, Dallars and Canadien uniform. Does he even have a job now in the NHL? I am pretty confident that their defensive skills will improve. The Oilers have quality defensive D in Staios, Greene (the best D for U.S. in the World Champion hockey) and Smid.

Here is what will the Oilers have going for them that they didn’t have last season. Offensive defensemen. Energy and vitality. Health. These are the musts if any team wants to win and the Oilers just didn’t have enough of them last season. And actually, I think it is commendable that they were able to play decent until the trade deadline. Are these enough to make the playoffs? Maybe not, but probably yes. Since they were able to hang around 8th place in th
e Western conference around the trade deadline without them, now that they have them at their arsenal, they will probably be a playoff team as long as they stay reasonably healthy. Who knows? They may even surprise a few people in the playoffs. That’s exactly what they did a year ago.