Second, and biggest among my disagreements (as you will see), I highly doubt that Kane will be paid in the $2-$2.5 range for his rookie year, because of how the ‘A’ and ‘B’ bonuses are delineated and the rookie alumni. Just to get him to roughly $1.7M he would have to do as a minimum (but I do suspect more in Kane’s case) 4 of the following:
And then class ‘B’ bonuses are:
Therefore in the end, I doubt he will even hit $2M for the year, with or without Havlat, and notice that “rookie” anything (like points as you mentioned) are not categories, other than the Rookie-All-Star (which is only an ‘A’ bonus) and Calder (which pays at most $212,500 for the winner). To boot, Kane will have some worthy competition in the rookie category with Radulov, both Johnson defensemen, Backstrom, and Toews just to name a few. This rookie class might not have the ultra-bright shinny head above upcoming mega-star among them, but as a collective they might be the best class ever (including the ’06 Class with Crosby and Ovechkin).
I also think Havlat is awesome, but only part-time (somehow he is not always “on”), and I feel playing with Martin would only marginally help Patrick’s entire-year numbers. Bertuzzi is extremely overpaid for what he has amounted to since the Moore incident, but obviously Burke feels he can bring back the old Todd. As to Penner being a Bertuzzi, well it all depends which Todd you think of. If it’s the present Todd, I will almost agree, but not the prior Todd. I simply have doubts on Penner becoming the player you (and others) envision out of him.
But in the end, you are right, it is all a wait-and-see game. I just do not have much faith on Penner, the Oilers plan, or Kane outshining the rest of the rookie class or league in general.]]>
I think Kane is a centreman and I do see him playing with Havlat or Samsonov. Lang will likely play with the other. If he plays with Havlat, his numbers are going to be through the roof. Havlat, arguably, is one of the most talented players in the NHL. That guy can do anything. If Kane plays with him, there is no question that Kane's points are going to be inflated and he will collect those 'A' bonuses. Again, I don't know of any big-name Rookie this year, so my prediction is that he will be receive that portion of the 'B' bonuses. I see him making between 2-2.5 million dollars this year. Bonuses or not, that's a lot for a 18-year-old kid who hasn't played one game in the NHL nor even attended training camp.
That's all I'm really trying to get at. I like your analogy of apples to suspenders. And yes, it's unfair to compare the high mark to the regular mark, but hey, if a team sees that much worth in someone, I can't complain until I personally see him play garbage. I think this conversation should be put off for one year to see how Penner plays this year.
Bertuzzi got about 4 million I think. I think Penner is being looked at as a similar player as him and will put up similar numbers given some quality players. But, we shall discuss this sometime in June of 2008, once we see how Penner adapts to his new fortune.]]>
Penner and Kane are not comparable contracts because Kane’s is strictly an entry level contract, which limits his income. Penner’s was not limited. Hence, there is the possibility to argue that Kane could have been paid more, whether through incentives or regular salary. In fact, that is another difference, because Penner is guaranteed his entire salary, if he plays better…too bad, if he plays worse…he got lucky. Whereas Kane’s only guarantee is the $875k and he must attain at least 4 different performance marks (that is the minimum, but I admit have not seen Kane’s contract) to get another $850k, and then he must beat out the rest of the NHL (or rookies, depending) in order to obtain the ‘B’ bonuses and collect a further $2M. Bonuses for lacing up the skates went out the door with the new CBA.
In the grand scheme of things, and accepting the argument you made for the situation in Chicago (although debatable), let us assume Kane will attain the performance marks (i.e. ‘A’ bonuses) in his rookie campaign. But to reach those ‘B’ bonuses is an entire different puck game. Not Alexander Ovechkin, nor Sidney Crosby have reached the maximum attainable on ‘B’ bonuses in a rookie campaign. And only Crosby did get the max last year of $3.7M (plus another $800k from the NHL) by winning the Hart, Pearson, and Art Ross. Everyone else who has the new entry-level contracts has fallen short of maximum compensation, and I do not expect Kane to max out either. I have heard of no one (expert, analyst, or otherwise) willing to make the statement that Kane will max out on his ‘B’ bonuses during the contract, unless you are willing to be the first on record.
The point is, Penner will get paid all the money, even if he sits on the bench or is scratched the entire season, whereas Kane’s only way to attain his big paycheck will be by sweating his bum off and beating out all or most of the competition throughout the NHL. You have to consider that, those ‘B’ bonuses mean that Kane must be among the statistical leaders among the entire NHL and in some cases beat out everyone else (including Crosby and Penner) in the categories available, in order to get paid. Therefore, these are not comparable, even if the high mark on Kane’s is close to Penner’s regular mark, we are most certainly talking apples and suspenders (oranges are too close to compare).]]>