Hockey Trade Rumors

In regard of my recent post about the teams investing heavily vs the one with cheaper goalie, i forgot to explain the Reason Why the teams having cheaply signed goaltender have more success.
so here is the explanation.

I calculated what is the performance difference you get in average to paid a premium for a #01 goalie. (see note)

The top highest paid goalie in 2010-2011:

Cam Ward (6.300.000$)
Henrik Lundqvist (6.875.000$)
Ryan Miller (6.250.000$)
Marc-Andre Fleury (5.000.000$)
Roberto Luongo (5.333.333$)
Tim Thomas (5.000.000$)
Tomas Vokoun (5.700.000$)
Martin Brodeur (5.200.000$)
Niklas Backstrom (6.000.000$)
Miikka Kiprusoff (5.833.000$)

Average cap hits: 5.749.133$
Average Games Played: 62.5
Average Shoot Again: 1817.7
Average Goal allowed:146

Average Saves % : 0.9197%

The top lowest paid:

Jimmy Howard (716.667$)
Jonathan Quick (1.800.000$)
Ondrej Pavelec (1.150.000$)
Corey Crawford (750.000$)
Brian Elliott (850.000$)
Sergei Bobrovsky (1.750.000$)
Steve Mason (905.000$)
James Reimer (596.667$)
Michal Neuvirth (821.667$)
Peter Budaj (1.250.000$)

Average Cap Hits: 1.059.000$

Average Games Played: 53.2
Average Shoot Again: 1498
Average Goal allowed:135.6

Average Saves % : 0.9095%

So in average (you can make the math) a top paid #01 will allow 0.276 less goal per games, or one less goal every 3 games and 2 periods

For a total average of 17 less goals per season. Yes, it can mean the difference between making the playoff or not.

But in using a cheap goalie a team save in average 4 690 1333$

What kind of player are signed for this amount?
note: We can also add to this amount the salary of the player a new player will replace, so anything between 4 200 000 and 5 400 000$! In fact its like swapping the salary of the high paid goalie for a equivalent forward/defense player!

Teemu Selanee (4 500 000$)
Ryan Getzlaf (5 325 000$)
Corey Perry (5 325 000$)
Bobby Ryan (5 100 000$)
Patrice Bergeron (4 750 000$)
Tim Connolly (4 500 000$)
John-Michael Liles (4 200 000$)
Mike Ribeiro (5 000 000$)
Ron Hainsey (4 500 000$)
Jason Pominville (5 300 000$)
Marian Hossa (5 275 000$)
Martin Havlat (5 000 000$)
Brian Gionta (5 000 000$)
Tomas Plekanec (5 000 000$)
Martin Erat (4 500 000$)
Jeff Carter (5 000 000$)
Chris Pronger (4 921 429$)
Shane Doan (4 500 000$)
Paul Martin (5 000 000$)
Simon Gagne (5 250 000$)
Martin St Louis (5 250 000$)
Ryan Malone (4 500 000$)
Michael Komisarek (4 500 000$)
Ryan Kesler (5 000 000$)
Dan Hamhuis (4 500 000$)

In general does this kind of players will make more than a 17 goals difference over a season ? i would say yes.

Of course these kind of players are not avaible all the time, but the money can be spend any other way,
to make two minors upgrades instead of a major one or to resign your own player due to a raise instead of losing them.
for example the fact that nashville get rid of vokoun and dont overpaid rinne will probably help them having the money for webber etc…

Dont forget that this article is about general trend, im aware there are exeption out there.

Here are some rules of thumbs.

The teams allowing more shoots benefit a bit more from having an elite goalies. (1 to 3 goals less per years)
An elite goalie able to play 65+ games is a bit more valuable than one playing less games, according to their respective backup. (Maybe 1 goal every 3-4 games he will play more!)
The teams with the most offense benefit less from having an elite goalie.

Note
1.#01 goalie mean the goalie that played the most games for his teams this season